SunSirs Export Expectations Cool Urea Market Remains Stable at High Levels

SunSirs  Export Expectations Cool 
Urea Market Remains Stable at High Levels

The domestic urea market is characterized by a pattern of stability with slight fluctuations, with prices remaining firm at high levels. This is due to a combination of factors, including cooling export expectations, government policies aimed at ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, support from low inventory levels, and underlying industrial demand. Market sentiment, which had previously been buoyed by rumors of export restrictions being lifted, has now moderated somewhat; spot prices remain firm, and the overall trend is stabilizing.
Urea
24 April SunSirs Benchmark Price: 1,885.00 RMB/ton
Compared to 1 April (1,865.00 RMB/ton): +1.07%
Compared to 1 January (1,790.00 RMB/ton): +5.31%

The reference price for upstream raw material liquid ammonia stands at 3,780 RMB/ton, providing stable cost support; anthracite coal prices are consolidating within a range, exerting limited influence on urea costs.
II. Core Market Dynamics

1. Export expectations cooling, sentiment returning to rationality
Recent market speculation regarding the relaxation of urea export restrictions has noticeably cooled, and the upward momentum driven by earlier rumors has weakened. Strict export controls are currently in place domestically, with the annual export quota capped at 3.3 million tons. New export declarations have been suspended during the critical spring plowing season, making a significant relaxation of export restrictions highly unlikely. Policy measures continue to emphasize securing supply and stabilizing prices, clearly limiting upside potential. Market sentiment has shifted from euphoria to rationality, with quotations gradually returning to fundamentals.
2. Low inventory levels and tight spot supply
Although operating rates on the supply side remain high and daily output is ample, corporate inventories are at historically low levels for this time of year. With a substantial backlog of orders, the supply of spot goods in circulation is tight. Manufacturers are strongly committed to maintaining prices, with slight premiums emerging in some regions; low-priced goods are hard to find. Low inventory levels provide solid support for prices, serving as the core reason for the firmness of the spot market.
3. Shift in demand structure: agricultural demand wanes, industrial demand provides a floor
The demand side has entered a phase of transition. Spring plowing and agricultural fertilizer usage have largely concluded, significantly weakening demand from the agricultural sector; however, essential industrial demand for compound fertilizers, wood-based panels and resins remains stable, serving as the primary support for the current market. Downstream enterprises are primarily engaged in essential procurement; whilst there is resistance to high prices, there is no widespread bearish sentiment, and market transactions remain steady.

. Policy-Driven Market with Limited Upside and Downside Potential
Policies aimed at ensuring supply and stabilizing prices permeate the market, explicitly restricting significant price increases; Meanwhile, low inventories and industrial essential demand provide a floor, leaving urea in a stalemate at elevated levels, unable to move significantly in either direction. With policy support and cost underpinnings coexisting, the market lacks a clear one-sided trend and is characterized by range-bound fluctuations.
III. 2026 Customs Import and Export Data
According to customs data, China’s urea exports in March 2026 stood at 58,700 tonnes, a sharp month-on-month decline of 47.35%; Cumulative exports for the first quarter stood at 480,000 tons. Although this represents a substantial year-on-year increase, it is primarily due to the low base figure from the previous year. With strict export controls currently in place, the spring plowing season from March to August is a critical window for ensuring domestic supply; export volumes remain restricted, and the impact of foreign trade on domestic prices is negligible. Imports are minimal and have virtually no impact on the market.
IV. Regional Market Performance

The national market remains largely stable, with minor adjustments in some areas:
Northeast: 1,830–1,910 RMB/ton, stable
North China: 1,770–1,930 RMB/ton, stable
East China: 1,870–1,930 RMB/ton, stable
South China: 2,020–2,060 RMB/ton, slight increase
Southwest: 1,840–2,180 RMB/ton, localized increases
Quotations in mainstream regions remain firm, with higher-priced areas primarily influenced by logistics and inventory structures.
V. Market Outlook

In the short term, the urea market is expected to remain range-bound at elevated levels, with minor fluctuations. Diminishing export expectations are curbing upward momentum, but low inventories, firm industrial demand and policy support provide a floor, making a sharp price drop unlikely.
Overall, the urea market is likely to consolidate at high levels. The market direction will become clearer once the agricultural off-season ends and export policies are clarified.

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